An Algorithmic Model Linking Military Force-Posture and Chokepoint Risk to Global Oil Prices
An Algorithmic Model Linking Military Force-Posture and Chokepoint Risk to Global Oil Prices Executive summary This report reconstructs a rigorous, modular “force‑posture → chokepoint/infrastructure risk → supply/flow impairment → price distribution” model for the global oil market across near‑term (0–12 months) and medium‑term (1–3 years) horizons in USD. The approach formalizes a decomposition between a structural baseline price (fundamentals) and a geopolitical/chokepoint risk premium (probability‑weighted tail risk), then specifies how force‑posture signals (e.g., rapid‑deployment forces) update scenario probabilities and expected physical impairments. [1] The contemporary stress test for the model is the March 2026 Middle East war shock: the International Energy Agency (IEA) characterizes the crisis as the largest supply disruption in global oil market history, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz collaps...